Marius Blogs

Criticism of Chapter Six of Jordan Peterson’s Book “12 Rules”

March 06, 2018

Due to some of my friends having a positive view of Jordan Peterson’s work, I am sometimes exposed to videos of his. That was the case recently and I watched him narrate an excerpt from his new book “12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos”. The video is Jordan Peterson reading chapter 6 of the book, entitled “Set your house in perfect order before you criticise the world”. It is addressed directly to school shooters in the US, keep that in mind, when reading this or watching the video, as it puts his points into an even more troubling context.

As a short introduction to Jordan Peterson, he is a professor of psychology at the University of Toronto.

He first became well known for his refusal to comply with being legally compelled using students preferred gender pronouns in regards to Canadas Bill 16-C. As far as I am aware he made this stance mainly on the gender pronouns of transgender people. If he has also raged against not being allowed to call for the genocide of minorities, I am not aware of it. A consistent stance against any compelled speech is hard though, and it is easier and more profitable to single out transgender people, a very marginalized group.

In response to the controversy, academic administrators at the University of Toronto sent Peterson two letters of warning, one noting that free speech had to be made in accordance with human rights legislation and the other adding that his refusal to use the preferred personal pronouns of students and faculty upon request could constitute discrimination. Peterson speculated that these warning letters were leading up to formal disciplinary action against him, but in December the university assured him that he would retain his professorship, and in January 2017 he returned to teach his psychology class at the University of Toronto

He has since made a very lucrative career our of leveraging this “victim status”. He has a very successful Patreon and Youtube Channel, published popular books, and features prominantely in many Interview shows lately. His newest book is the aforementioned 12 Rules, in which he gives advice for a better life.

Before I start going into it, I must point out that he couches everything in “mights” and “mays”, but for criticism to work at all I’ll have to take some of the things he wrote as something he actually believes or at least wants to say something with. Fans of his will often use his vagueness to defend him, claiming that critics misrepresent him. However when done often enough it reduces his points to such simple levels that they are hardly worth talking about. So for this I will use my interpretation of what he wants to says, and assume that he feels he has something important to say when he dedicates a book to it. Of course you can judge for yourself whether my criticism is accurately reflecting his point, by reading or listening to the chapter.

There are two parts to my criticism. In the first part I will go through the chapter and address aspects I feel are misleading or contradictory in the second part I want to address what he is really saying in this chapter and why it is not good.

He starts off by saying that it does not seem reasonable to call the perpetrators of the Sandy Hook school massacre, the Colorado Cinema massacre and the Columbine school massacre religious people. And while that may be true in these cases he picked, it is certainly not true for all mass shooters, many of which are specifically motivated by their religious beliefs, and many more of which are religious, but their deeds seem to be unrelated to that fact. From the later points he makes it seems that this non-religiousness he refers to has to do with an anger at the world (from time to time he will use the word God instead), and a sort of nihilism that follows from it.

I point this out in particular, because he will take these few examples, and without examining why it would be an acceptable leap, and without mentioning that he even makes the leap, present it as if it was the basis for all mass shootings, and further implying that it is the basis for all bad in the world. That is however not the case. He will cite the statistic that in the US 1000 mass shootings were perpetrated in 3 years, and this statistic does exist, however the majority of these mass shootings were not perpetrated by people out of a hatred for the world. The vast majority are organised crime and gang related or domestic violence, others are terrorist attacks, which, rather than being an expression of nihilism, are designed to effect change in the world due to a deeply held belief. It is not a big part of this chapter, but I feel it shows an intellectual dishonesty that is very telling.

It is further interesting that he seems to relate to this rage against the world in some regards:

“Under such conditions, vengeance seems a moral necessity. How can it be distinguished from the demand for justice? After the experience of terrible atrocity, isn’t forgiveness just cowardice, or lack of willpower? Such questions torment me. But people emerge from terrible pasts to do good, and not evil”

Remember that we are talking about mass shooters whose anger at the world led them to kill innocent bystanders. I don’t think most people would say that this is the logical, moral conclusion of injustices in the world. I certainly don’t think that “burn it all down” is the conclusion I come to, rather I think for many people the injustices in the world are a reason to fuel their desire to make it better. I think him missing this very simple alternative, perhaps because it is not the point of view he comes from, is at the root of how he tries to explain that people do good regardless of it.

Perhaps one can claim that this is only the case of those that are struck by particularly harsh injustice, whoever may get to define that, but you can decide for yourself whether you think that forgiveness is cowardice and in how far murder can be considered equal to getting vengeance on the world.

Next he talks about Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, who certainly lived a very interesting life.

“During his many trials, Solzhenitsyn encountered people who comported themselves nobly, under horrific circumstances. He contemplated their behaviour deeply. Then he asked himself the most difficult of questions: had he personally contributed to the catastrophe of his life? If so, how? He remembered his unquestioning support of the Communist Party in his early years. He reconsidered his whole life.”

One might ask themselves if that is a general case Peterson is making. If all victims of World War 2, of the Soviet Gulags personally contributed to the catastrophe of their lives. This question however is not addressed, and in the rest of the chapter is implicitly treated as if it was the case. Here he also hints at the “clean your house” part of the argument. He claims that Solzhenitsyn had to first reflect on his complicity to then be able to make a functional critique. This seems at best a very flimsy connection, and certainly doesn’t warrant the absolute statement “set your house in perfect order before you criticise the world.” (emphasis mine, but c’mon, “perfect”? Really?)

“Whole peoples have adamantly refused to judge reality, to criticise Being, to blame God”

This immediately follows his praise for and example of Solzhenitsyn who apparently wrote a book judging Communist reality so harshly that it ceased to exist. And of course it is featured in a book by Peterson that judges reality to be wanting and the people in it in need of following rules he likes.

You can handwave that with some arbitrary “Oh, Solzhenitsyn and Peterson have first set their house in order…it’s just all those people who criticise the parts of reality Peterson likes who are mistaken”, and that does seem to be the modus operandi, Peterson claims or implies a lot of very outrageous things, however he brings these claims back to a very simple message, something you could summarise in an inspirational quote or “Bad people are bad, it would be better if they were good”, which sure, we can all agree on, it’s just the 30 other minutes of the video that are a problem.

“This is life. We build structures to live in. We build families, and states, and countries. We abstract the principles upon which those structures are founded and formulate systems of belief. At first we inhabit those structures and beliefs like Adam and Eve in Paradise. But success makes us complacent. We forget to pay attention. We take what we have for granted. We turn a blind eye. We fail to notice that things are changing, or that corruption is taking root. And everything falls apart. Is that the fault of reality—of God? Or do things fall apart because we have not paid sufficient attention?”

Lets unpack this. Who is “we”? Now most of this chapter is about individuals and their believes and actions, but I believe that when he says “we” here he talks about the system that humans have created. In the subsequent paragraph he goes into Hurricane Katrina, and how some or all of the fallout from that would have been preventable (which btw, is by itself a good point, if you’d like to watch a good video about the man made aspects of natural disasters I’d suggest this two part series by youtuber Mexie: part1 - part2).

However he conflates the totality of the system, the reality we live in, albeit human-made and perpetrated by humans, with the individual. The system has failed the people of New Orleans, the system has failed the people of Grenfell Tower, and no amount of them tidying their room would have helped, only structural criticism resulting in structural change could have helped, something that this chapter, while at times paying lip service to, is designed to work against this.

From a moral level I have to ask, is it right to even imply that perhaps there was complicity of the individual? I find it, at the very least, distasteful.

I leave the reference to an apparent Garden of Eden in humanities history for everyone to ponder themselves. From what I understand I can not find much perfection in human recorded history, and pre-history certainly comes with it’s own set of suffering. I’m not even sure Peterson would disagree, perhaps it is only meant to be taken metaphorical, but then, too, I would like to know what it is referring to, sandwiched between a reference to Jewish history and the Hurricane Katrina.

In the final part we come to the crux of his argument under the heading “Clean Up Your Life”. Here he suggest that we should first take a look at how we can improve small things, our personal relationships, our career. And here comes the two main points of my disagreement. Firstly while I think people should strive to be moral in their personal life, I don’t think we should think of it as a requirement to effect moral change on a systemic level. You don’t have to be a nice person to your brother to help a lot of people through other means. Mahatma Gandhi, an example he cites earlier, was not a perfect person, there are a lot of things he did that were bad in his personal life, however his positive impact for the people under colonial rule is seldom denied nowadays.

Now some may say that that is not what he means, and maybe it isn’t, but it’s certainly an easy takeaway. Take the final sentence of this chapter: “Set your house in perfect order before you criticise the world.” Not clearly addressed is how perfect we have to be before advocating for positive change at a systemic level. What he also does not examine is how this advice is really no different to the suggestions that those advantaged by a system give to those disadvantaged by it, “first bring your own house in order, then we’ll consider improvements”. Using this advice you can silence anyone, because no one is perfect. Compartmentalising the world into the personal that you need to work on first and the structural or systemic that should be tackled later heavily favours a) the current system and its victors and b) people not playing by this arbitrary rule.

Rather than decoupling it, I would say that striving for a positive systemic change is one of the things you need to get in order first. If you are not trying to make the world better for everyone, you are not the best you that you can be. Peterson seems to decouple that part of self improvement however, and the only people profiting from such a decoupling are those already favored by the system.

Secondly, when he says “you can use your own standards of judgment. You can rely on yourself for guidance.”, in essence, saying “listen to your gut”; That is terrible advice. The systems we have created are incredibly complex and many actions that appear positive using “common sense”, turn out not to be when inspected more closely. Behaving morally is sadly not something that you can just wing, you have to put some effort in to make sure that what you do is actually helpful.

At any rate, if you can take something positive from his work, that’s great, it is very vague, so you can think of it as a Rorschach test of morality. But please don’t take from it that you have to be some form of perfect being before you can effect positive change in society, nor that you should solely listen to what feels morally good, try to understand the context in which your behaviour exists, things aren’t always as simple as they seem, and common sense approaches can be more harmful than helpful.

If you want to be very benevolent you can craft something positive from it. Something like “try to be better in your personal life”, yes definitely, but don’t do it at the exclusion of systemic improvement, and don’t base it solely on your own standards of judgement, do some research, ponder the greater implications of what your “common sense” standards may imply, then yes, this could be a good piece of advice. Alas, it is not written as such in the text, and that is a shame.

The Potential of the iPhone

March 09, 2013

Inspired by Benedict Evans piece on the cheap Apple phones potential for Apple’s bottom line here, I want to do some thought experiments myself. So, lets do some calculations! I’ll start off with some numbers, make some assumptions and end with how many iPhones (or phones made by Apple), for how much revenue and profit, Apple could sell by Q4 of 2017.

First, lets say that Apple extends their iPhone product line with two devices that have recently been in the rumor news; The iPhone+ (5inch high end iPhone) and the iPhone Nano (200-300$ high-low end iPhone). I won’t make any predictions what these might entail spec-wise in this post, I’ll just say they’ll exist and they’ll be popular.

For this I’ll declare the iPhone+ ASP to be 640 USD with a margin of 50% and the iPhone Nano with an ASP of 220 USD and a margin of 35%.

Now some numbers we know currently, I won’t cite them, cause I’m lazy, but they are probably somewhere close to right, do your own research, dammit.

In Q4 of 2012

1. The standard iPhone

Lets assume it just grows with the market, in that case Apple would sell 63.7 million standard iPhones. At the same ASP that would be 40. 8 billion USD revenue, with margin of 50% that’s 20.4 billion USD absolute margin.

2. The iPhone+

Like I said Samsung probably sold around 30 million of these. Maybe there were another 10 million sold altogether by other manufacturers. These 40 million, again, would grow to 53 million. Here’ll I make a contentious claim, I think Apple can get 50% of that market by competing with 4.5+ inch phones, and sell 26.5 million units. Standard iPhone ASP puts that at 17 billion USD, same percentage gives us a gross margin of 8.5 billion USD

3. The iPhone Nano

As for the rest; After we’ve taken out the high-high end of 117 million phones, we are left with 483 million other phones, most of them probably some sort of smartphone. If Apple can extend the strategy it already followed with the iPod it could perhaps grab 15% of that market, which gives us 72.5 million iPhone Nanos. With the ASP and margin as previously discussed that would generate revenue of 16 billion USD and the margin would be 5.6 billion USD.

Coming back to the title of this piece, I believe that the potential of Apple’s iPhone line alone could be 162.7 million units sold which creates 73.8 billion in revenue and 34.5 billion (which is more than the revenue that Apple currently makes with the iPhone actually) in gross margin. ASP in that case would be around 450 and the percentage margin 46.7%

If this were to come true, it would mean Apple multiplies its revenue from the iPhone by 2.41 times from 30.6 billion to 73.8 billion and its gross margin by 2.25 from 15.3 to 34.5 billion. It would also have 27.1% market share up from 10.6% currently. Quite a lot of potential for just one of their product lines.

Now we play the waiting game.

If you’d like to tell me how wrong or right you think I am, why not drop me a line on twitter @mhoffbauer

Market Categories - iPhone vs. Galaxy S

February 19, 2013

The Android vs. iOS debate has many oft-repeated narratives that color the perception of the people subscribing to them. You can often tell what camp a person is in, and whose opinions they follow, by looking at these. “Apple makes more profit than anyone” “Android is the winner by market share” “iOS has high quality apps” “Android is an open system” …

One popular narrative is “Apple needs to make a … because someone else is successful with it”. This is mainly repeated about three different categories: A budget phone, a “Phablet” (larger sized phone, screen diagonal of 5 inches and up) and previously a 7 inch tablet.

Hence the rumors of a cheaper iPhone, or a bigger, phablet-like iPhone, or sometimes both. Both a cheaper phone and a phablet could be good categories for Apple to get into, especially a cheap, smaller iPhone aimed to replace the feature phones and low-budget Android phones that are currently replacing feature phones, perhaps an iPod Nano + Phone (but I’m fantastisizing, for fantastisizing is fun) would be something I’d like to see. I digress, back on topic.

This stems from people seeing only whole categories, rather than sub-categories. They look at the tablet market over all and Apple has to worry, because 7 inch tablets sell. Or even more prominently look at the whole phone market, and compare the Galaxy S line and the Galaxy Note line to the iPhone, when they don’t directly compete, as they are already separated by a “non-negotiable” feature (the size of the screen). The fact really is that, not just of course in profit, but also in market share, Apple is the uncontended winner in the 3.5 inch and 4 inch phone category (similar to how they are currently the uncontended winner in the 10 inch tablet market). That means Apple has a growth opportunity by attacking the 4.5+ inch market.

Now, for comparison Apple’s strategy with the iPod (which now has 70% of the market) was to start from the high end and then extend its business to lower price points (Mini, Nano, Shuffle) and different high end form factors (iPod Touch)

Now there is a new example of this strategy, the iPad Mini.

The problem is that, except for Apple, no one discloses any useful numbers in the tablet business. However some high end estimates can be made. Lets start with the Nexus 7. Google kept giving vague numbers in the first couple months how many they might have sold (500 000, 600 000, 1 000 000…) and it appears that they have sold a maximum of 4.8 million (http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/2/19/nexus-7-maths). The Kindle is likely outselling it and some estimates I’ve read are around 11 million (some of those are of course 8.9 inch devices). Samsung apparently “doubled” its sales of tablets to 7.8 million in the last quarter (of its whole line, whether that includes all Notes or just 10 inch Notes I don’t know) but it is like they won’t have sold much more than 15-20 million altogether since they started selling tablets.

It appears that Apple became, in just one quarter, not just the biggest seller per quarter, but also the biggest seller overall (or close to) of tablets in the 7 inch category. Beating out Google (who has been in the market for 6 months), Amazon (14) and Samsung (28) despite being severely supply constrained throughout the period and the competing devices being sold at miniscule margins or even at cost. And more than that, it seems very possible that within a year they could be the absolute majority seller of 7 inch category tablets.

Taking this information from other categories I would say that it is not Apple that has to make a phablet or a budget phone or a watch or a TV, but instead it is its potential competitors that have to hope and fear that Apple doesn’t, as it would likely eat their profit (if they have any)…and then their market share.

Not “Samsung is successful in that category and now Apple HAS to react”, but

“Apple can react, and if they do, you probably don’t want to be their competitor”

If you’d like to tell me how wrong or right you think I am, why not drop me a line on twitter @mhoffbauer

Steve Jobs

October 06, 2011

I only started following the tech scene in early 2008. Since then I’ve of course read about its past, and I did of course experience some of the bigger events, but it wasn’t really on my day to day radar. So I wasn’t really influenced or exposed to Steve Jobs and Apple until then, perhaps the most significant thing I associated with Apple was that Douglas Adams (another person who died too soon) loved Macs.

I always found it annoying when Apple fans said “He doesn’t get it” or “He gets it”, it felt like it was extremely arrogant and dismissive and I still feel like there can be difference of opinions without creating such zealous for and against groups. I really got into consumer technology around the time the T-Mobile G1 was getting ready and I was squarely in the “Android is awesome, get that!” camp. My main feeling back then was about it being open and therefore having more potential, which I still think it does in many ways, but back then I felt like Apple was doing bad things by keeping their platform closed and only approving what they like. I also was influenced by the “Apple makes overpriced crap” ideas that so many people have and there’s no denying their products can be pricey, but the crap part, I wasn’t really sure about back then either. I hope I was never rude or offensive at that time to people not sharing my opinion, and I do feel like I often said something along the lines of “Yeah the iPhone is a decent device, but…”. Either way, I considered myself in the not-Apple camp, and got offended when Apple zealots would insult Android.

But slowly things changed for me. For one I started following John Gruber, and slowly was brainwashed by his propaganda, but what I think it really started with is the iPad. I was so excited about all the rumors that flew around for it, it sounded basically like the one device I always wanted, and I remember having many talks with people who just couldn’t see it at all and were sure it was doomed to failure. Well, that turned out differently. And especially, it made the “overpriced crap” idea almost disappear for me. The iPad has been for almost two years the best device for the least amount of money in its category. Nothing compared for ages. The other thing that disappeared for me was that I started thinking of iOS devices as consoles, not computers, and that somehow changed a lot for me. I am into gaming a lot, and I get why there is a reason to not open up your console to everybody, you want a certain quality, and that’s what you sell your consumers. I love that Android exists, and I think I’d still buy it over an iPhone, but I am also so glad that Apple exists and that it makes it’s beautiful devices with their walled garden…a most lovely garden actually.

As an aside, I love my iPod touch, I think it is possibly the best consumer electronic device ever created. And amongst some of my friends I have the reputation of being an Apple zealot. Perhaps I just “get it” now.

So Steve Jobs died today (yesterday in California), and it surprised me a lot. I suppose it shouldn’t have, but I didn’t take him stepping down as seriously as it obviously was. I guess I figured, he’ll be on the board for a while, and he’ll get better and he’ll do something great. I know not everyone agrees, but I view him very positively. I think he has done incredible stuff to shape the world we live in and I admired him a lot. So, his death hit me hard, especially for the death of someone I never met, never talked to, didn’t know beyond articles that other people wrote which may have tangentially been related to him. But it also made me think of something else I’ve been thinking about and I think it is mainly due to this quote (I think every single article about his death so far featured the quote, and I understand why, and won’t be left out):

“Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure – these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.”

I (and apparently everyone else) think that is a great quote, not just for someone who battled with cancer, who obviously was reminded of their death in a frighteningly real way, but for all of us. And that’s something I had been thinking about for a while. Memento mori (remember that you must die). I’ve been thinking about it due to an interview I read with another person I admire, the artist/game-maker Jason Rohrer, who said that, to him, his game “Passage” (which I recommend whole heartedly) was a sort of Memento Mori. And it was something that I’d want to do, I want to create something that inspires, by reminding me of my mortality. I don’t know how I will do it, there are many art forms I am interested in and even more that I am completely bad at (all of them), but I know that I do want to create things, and I know this is one of them.

Steve Jobs death was deeply saddening to me, I know he has inspired many people already, and I think he will in the future. To me it seems that if you have to die, being able to look back on something good you have done, on having lived your life in a way that you wanted, is a great thing, and Steve Jobs had achieved more than almost anyone else by the time of his death. And besides calmly and in peace, that must be a great way to go.